View In:   Map Viewer

The Population Projections for the State of Tennessee, produced for the Tennessee State Data Center, contain projections for each county in Tennessee by race, age, and sex for each year from 2020 to 2070. Age is defined by five-year groups, starting with “age 0-4” and ending with “age 85+” group. Race is delineated as one of four categories that combine race and ethnic definitions:

Our forecast implements a cohort-component methodology.  We specify the base year as 2000 and the launch year as 2021.  Thus, we inform the forecast with trends from 2000 to 2020. Using vital statistics data from the Tennessee Department of Health, we project the population change resulting from natural components (births minus deaths). Differences between actual population values as reported by the Census and values predicted using births and deaths are used to establish net migration patterns. The forecast used these predicted net migration patterns; life tables from the Social Security Administration; recent average birth rates by county, race, and age of female; and forecast future U.S. populations.

The 2020 base year population estimates for Tennessee Counties are from the 2020 Vintage Estimates of Population and Housing Units produced by the US Census Bureau.